Tonight, the legendary Manny Pacquiao ends a very brief retirement to take on Jessie Vargas for the WBO welterweight strap. The fight has been dumped on by the media, and will probably do a poor pay-per-view number.
Even HBO declined to cary the PPV. This is partially because of the upcoming light heavyweight championship PPV in two weeks between Andre Ward and Sergey Kovalev, and partially because of Bob Arum’s choice of opponent.
I believe the other reason, is because the ultra-liberal network has their panties in a bunch over Pacquiao having the courage to speak his Christian beliefs. Nobody mentions this, but if you think Jim Lampley would criticize a Muslim fighter for speaking his beliefs (IE left wing hero Muhammad Ali) the way he did Pacquiao on an episode of The Fight Game, think again.
Truth be told, I don’t love Arum/Pacquiao’s choice of opponent either. I would have much preferred to see the Filipino legend ride off into the sunset off a dominating performance in his last fight against the highly underrated Timothy Bradley.
But fighters have a hard time shaking that bug to continue, especially off a performance like he just put in last April.
Understanding this, the best scenarios from a Pacquiao/boxing fan’s point-of-view would have been one of three things:
1-A rematch with Floyd Mayweather. Pacquiao has been the media’s whipping boy since the 5/2/15 “Super Fight” which did not live up to casual fans’ expectations. This is historically common in boxing.
For every Ali-Frazier or Hagler-Hearns, there have been plenty of Holyfield-Lewis, or De La Hoya-Trinidads which left the fans disappointed that it did not turn out to be the real life version of Creed-Balboa.
Pacquiao has been criticized for fighting injured and staying competitive with the best pound-for-pound fighter of his era. Can you imagine the backlash had he pulled out of the fight a few weeks prior with a shoulder injury?
Personally, though I would still favor Mayweather , I would be more than interested in a rematch with both fighters at 100%. But, Mayweather is sticking to his retirement for now.
2-A fifth fight with Pacquiao’s greatest rival, Juan Manuel Marquez. We have a draw improperly scored to Marquez’ benefit, a close split decision victory for Pacquiao, and a closer majority decision for Pacquiao leading up to an all-time classic knockout victory for Marquez.
Marquez has never admitted losing a close fight in his life, and believes he won all four fights. The punch stats in fights two and three favored Pacquiao, but they were so close that whoever came out on the short end of those decisions really couldn’t cry robbery.
But remember, Pacquiao was fighting Marquez better in the fourth fight than he had since round two of their first contest. After getting off the deck, he looked to be on his way to stopping the Mexican warrior.
Then, he lunged into a perfectly timed Marquez right hand and went to sleep. The punch was not lucky, because Marquez trained to do just that; time the southpaw coming in with right hand counters, especially off Pacquiao’s faint.
But, the punch was miraculous. Even though Pacquiao gave Marquez two rematches he didn’t have to, I believe Marquez has no interest in returning the favor. Marquez saw the writing on the wall leading up to the shot heard around the Philippines.
I don’t believe Marquez thinks he can pull another miracle, and his skills are more aged at this point than Pacquiao’s. But these two are perfect dance partners for each other, and I would tune in to see them fight at any age!
3-The final choice would have been for Pacquiao to take on a young upcoming stud like Terrance Crawford or one of Al Haymon’s prime welterweight lions. A victory would further cement his legacy. A loss would pass the torch the way De La Hoya passed it to Pacquiao.
But make no mistake, Jessie Vargas is a hungry, prime and legitimate top 10 welterweight with nothing to lose. He has heart and underrated power which he showed in his only loss, nearly pulling off a last round KO of Timothy Bradley.
Combine that with Pacquiao’s age and subsided killer instinct, and Vargas has a legit shot.
So, what is my prediction? Father time is and always will be undefeated. If Pacquiao fights too long, he will meet him along the way right next to the young buck ready to take him out just like so many past greats.
But barring the Pac-Man walking into the ring and suddenly getting old which can happen at his age, I just don’t think Vargas has the tools in the box to do the job. I am predicting a mid-to-late rounds stoppage for the Filipino icon ending his streak of fights without a victory inside the distance for which he has been so criticized.
Manny Pacquiao as a true lightweight is still one of the best welterweights in the world. There are a select few I may pick to beat him head-to-head, but with Mr. Money Man still on the shelf, Pacquiao is arguably the best in boxing’s deepest division until further notice.
If you don’t agree he is at least in the conversation, you’re just a hater. Talk soon.
-Marksman