Those of you who saw the first showdown between unified middleweight champion Gennady Gennadyevich Golovkin (Triple G) (38-0-1, 34 KO) of Kazakhstan and Saul “Canelo” Alvarez (49-1-2, 34 KO) of Mexico last September saw a good, not great action fight between two TV-friendly fighters. You also were lied to by corrupt or inept judges who scored a bulls**t draw to Canelo’s benefit.
Most who watched the scrap outside Camp Canelo felt that Golovkin won clearly in a competitive fight. Alvarez had his moments; enough of them to justify this rematch but it should be 1-0 GGG at this point.
Almost exactly one year to the day on September 15 on HBO Pay-Per-View at 8:00 PM EST the telecast starts and GGG will have the chance to right a wrong while Alvarez will get the opportunity to cement himself as the rightful non-heavyweight star in boxing.
The rematch was of course originally scheduled for this past May but 2 failed PED tests lead to a suspension of the red-haired Mexican, more laborious negotiations and bad blood between the camps. Hopefully that bad blood will make for the modern day Hagler-Hearns type classic that we were hoping for last time out.
The champ comes in with some subtle advantages. He possesses the superior jab, punching power, conditioning, recent activity (KO win over Vanes Mitirosyan in May while the challenger has had a one year layoff) and maybe a small edge in physical strength and chin though Alvarez showed last year that he has the whisker’s to withstand the Kazakh’s power.
Canelo’s more pronounced advantages are his speed, defense, versatility (he can pressure and counter while Golovkin MUST come forward), and most of all his age. At 28 the Mexican warrior is in his athletic prime while Father Time is nipping at the 36 year old GGG’s heels.
Hardcore fans were disgusted with Canelo’s choice to surrender the WBC belt that he won from Miguel Cotto in 2015 rather than immediately face Golovkin’s mandatory challenge.
But like it or not, it turned out to be a smart move as that version of GGG was far too dangerous to Canelo’s health in comparison to the present version of Golovkin which has been world-class, but not the dominant force he was say pre-2017.
The keys to victory for the challenger are:
1-Keep the fight in the center of the ring. Having your back against the ropes is suicide against a guy like Golovkin who has all-time power and Chavez-like (Senior) determination.
2-Be busier. The red-haired Mexican made GGG miss big at times but didn’t counter with enough volume. He also must keep his jab in a good rhythm to disrupt Golovkin’s which is basically a power punch.
3-BETTER CONDITIONING! This is paramount for Canelo and has always been his Achilles heel. He has a tendency (maybe from the muscular physique) to gas out. The above two are contingent on Alvarez’ stamina.
Keys to victory for the champ:
1-Keep that sledge hammer jab pumping all night! When GGG looked sloppy at times against Kel Brook in September 2016 before stopping the Brit, it was because he was lunging in with rights and left hooks without jabbing his way in.
2-Cut the ring, don’t follow. Pressure fighters like the Kazakh must cut the ring off and keep Caleno pinned to the ropes. When pressure fighters get sloppy with their footwork (common with age), they end up chasing the more elusive fighter and walking into hazardous conditions.
3-As Teddy Atlas would say: “put some water in the basement!” In the first fight and Golovkin’s close victory over Daniel Jacobs, he all but abandoned what for most of his career has been a punishing body attack. This will slow Canelo down, wind him faster and create more opportunities upstairs if not end the fight itself. Granted, going to the body opens you up to punishment but it may be a risk that GGG has to take to get his hand raised as seen last time out.
So who am I picking? The mental game for both is key here.
Golovkin is as solid mentally as they come, but he is angered by the disrespect shown to his championship reign by the Vegas judges, failed tests and negotiations where he was usually the one making B-side concessions. He seems to be fighting uncharacteristically angry. Does that cause him to over-train and leave it all in the gym?
Was Canelo doping in their first bout? Or were the failed Chlenbuterol tests really the product of tainted Mexican beef which has exonerated other athletes?
Only he knows. But if he was dirty in the first contest and now under stricter testing (WADA, though nothing is foolproof) there could be some self doubt for the Mexican going in.
Also, will the bad blood lure Alvarez into more of a firefight? As a GGG fan and just a fight fan in general I sure hope so.
But I am going with the assumption, at least for now that Canelo was clean the first time and clean now. I will also assume he is smart enough to box and fight in spots like before.
Golovkin is what he is: a come forward destroyer. And at 36 he is never getting any better at it; probably only worse.
Since the decision was read I was picking Canelo in my mind for this fight because that is what logic points to at this stage of their careers. With the age difference and the fact that Canelo is the present AND foreseeable future golden goose for Las Vegas, GGG seems to be up against it.
But sometimes a once great fighter, and GGG was once great even if the general public never knew turns back the clock. I am reminded of Roberto Duran’s unexpected victory over Iran Barkley in 1989 on a snow covered Atlantic City night at age 37. Barkley was fresh off a knockout of Tommy Hearns who had nearly decapitated Duran in 1984.
I also think of the countless times we thought Bernard Hopkins was done but proved himself to be a self described “alien” with victories over the likes of Antonio Tarver, Kelly Pavlik and Jean Pascal. Something in my gut tells me that the champ has something good coming to him.
So I will go against my head and with my gut that GGG breaks Canelo down and wins inside the distance. Talk soon.
-Marksman
PS: Boxing is notorious for light undercards in comparison to Ultimate Fighting Championship events. Not this time. This card features former pound-for-pound king Roman “Chocolatito” Gonzalez taking on Moises Fuentes. In a battle of middleweight contenders, two action fighters square off when David Lemieux (former GGG victim) meets Gary “Spike” O’Sullivan. And in the semi-final undefeated knockout artist and 154 pound belt holder Jaime Munguia meets Brandon Cook.