Well Straight Shooters, the circus tents from three weeks ago have been folded up and shipped out to make room for the arrival in Vegas of boxers who matter. The overdue matchup for middleweight (160 lbs. limit) supremacy has been made between WBA, WBC and IBF Middleweight Champion Gennady “GGG” Golovkin (37-0, 33 KO) and Saul “Canelo” Alvarez (49-1-1, 34 KO).
Golovkin is the recognized middleweight king, while Canelo has some claim to the lineal title (the man who beat the man, who beat the man). Unfortunately the powers-that-be in boxing have created confusion that I have to clarify every time I preview a big fight.
You see Miguel Cotto won the WBC strap and lineal title from Sergio Martinez in June, 2014. Canelo lifted the title from Cotto by unanimous decision in November, 2015; the WBC declared GGG the mandatory challenger for the winner as he had cleaned out most of the division.
Canelo gave up the belt handing it to GGG rather than face him in September, 2016. Canelo’s handlers stated that he had yet to grow into a full-fledged middleweight even though he was rehydrating to around 170 lbs. before his fights.
The truth is that they were waiting out Golovkin’s ticking age. But now GGG is 35, Canelo’s people have run out of lucrative alternatives risking their fighter’s credibility with his own Mexican fan base, and the event true boxing fans have been demanding for two years is here.
The meshing of these styles SHOULD (nothing is ever guaranteed in boxing) make for an action-packed night of violence. You have an accurate and powerful counterpuncher with quick hands, good head movement but slow feet in Canelo taking on a tremendously conditioned pressure fighter who cuts off the ring impeccably while carrying historic punching power in Golovkin.
Gennady Golovkin of Kazakhstan was an Olympic Silver Medalist in 2004. He then began a professional path of international destruction to the United States collecting all the belts he could get his hands on, but being avoided by big name/big money fighters.
However, Golovkin has shown some slippage in his last two fights. He looked sloppy before stopping former welterweight champ Kell Brook a year ago and was given all he could handle on his way to a unanimous decision victory over Daniel Jacobs in March, 2017.
In all fairness Jacobs is probably the second best middleweight in the world behind GGG. Some say GGG also may have become slightly disinterested continuing to be forced to fight largely unknown opponents.
Some say age has caught up to him. I suspect a little of both.
He now has the dance partner he’s been waiting for in the red-haired Mexican. Canelo (Spanish for cinnamon) looks more like the perfect Notre Dame mascot than the Mexican badass he is.
Admittedly I, like many other hardcore boxing fans have taken a while to warm up to the idea of Canelo being a star. He began fighting as a pro in Mexico at age 15; that’s right, 15 against grown men.
When he broke in with the US audience it was clear he had talent, but the networks and boxing media seemed to give him the same treatment ESPN once gave a young female golfer named Michelle Wie. They were determined to manufacture a star before the athlete proved himself to be a true champion (major problem in sports today).
Alvarez was rushed into a fight with Floyd Mayweather at age 23. He fought with hesitance and was taken to school by a boxing savant (not the version many of you may have watched 3 weeks ago).
It was similar to when a young powerful heavyweight with the right complexion named Gerry Cooney was rushed into a bout with a peak all-time great champion in Larry Holmes. But unlike Cooney who fell apart mentally after his loss to Holmes, Canelo has used his Maywether boxing lesson as a building block to a career now on a hall-of-fame trajectory.
If this fight took place when it should have, I think the Mexican goes to the hospital after three rounds. But Canelo has looked sharper and stronger with each passing fight.
Part of that has been a product of being matched with undersized and/or stylistically made-to-order opponents. But combine his improvements with GGG’s age and you have a different fight.
The advantages for Canelo are youth, hand speed and head movement. The advantages for GGG are punching power (though Canelo can punch), strength and conditioning.
Both fighters have shown solid chins, but I will put this in the Kazakh’s favor as Canelo has not tasted power like Golovkin’s. Golovkin has been in with punchers comparable to Canelo.
Both have very underrated jabs (it just may be GGG’s best punch). The one who better established theirs’ will be at a great advantage; both are fierce body punchers.
Neither are fleet of foot which makes for more carnage. Though GGG is the champ, Canelo is the star and I would expect the Nevada State Athletic Commission is leaning heavily on the judges behind the scenes (unfortunate reality in this sport) to favor Canelo in close rounds.
Kenny Bayless is the appointed referee. That works in Canelo’s favor as Bayless is quick to break fighters working inside and on the ropes which is GGG’s usual sweet spot.
I think GGG needs to win rounds convincingly or knock Alvarez out and I think he knows this. The footage and photos I have seen of them together tell me Golovkin feels this is his moment. I sense a relaxed focus.
Canelo doesn’t appear intimidated (and probably never was personally) but I like Golovkin’s mental makeup better. I also think Golovkin has the superior gas tank; I have seen Canelo tire in deep waters.
GGG got away from his body attack against Jacobs and I think it cost him in the form of a very tough night. He will need to get back to that on Saturday; I believe he will.
I believe there will be blood on both these combatants pale faces. But I think Golovkin comes through with a stoppage about round 9.
There are fights every year that produce fireworks. But slugfests are more rare at the elite level; that’s why Ali-Frazier III and Hagler-Hearns are landmark fights.
These two elite throwbacks have the POTENTIAL to give boxing and it’s fans a well-deserved present. Talk soon.
-Marksman
PS: Mr. President, no wall-no base. No base, no re-election.