Boxing has taken a deserved wrap lately for it’s inability to deliver fights matching the best against the best. Truthfully, boxing has had a dreadful year. It has done nothing to quell the casual fan’s hangover from their disappointment in the Mayweather-Pacquiao fight.
Tonight we get two undefeated gladiators, both of whom rank in the top 5 pound-for-pound squaring off for the unified light heavyweight championship of the world as Andre Ward challenges champion Sergey Kovalev on HBO pay-per-view.
This fight is for the unified title as opposed to the undisputed title due to WBC strap holder Adonis Stevenson running to Showtime/PBC to avoid Kovalev.
I don’t expect a huge PPV number because HBO has gone on the cheap with it’s boxing programing. It has done little to promote potential stars in the post Mayweather-Pacquiao era.
The 24/7 series made household names of those guys along with their trainers and family members. But lately HBO has been doing cookie-cutter lead-up shows that don’t give the casual fan intimate knowledge of the fighters the way 24/7 did.
Andre Ward (30-0, 15 KO) is America’s 2004 and last Olympic boxing gold medalist. I can’t think of an American Olympic champion in my lifetime (in any sport) who has gone more unnoticed.
Some of this is due to Ward’s inactivity a few years ago which was a result of injuries and promotional disputes. In all fairness, Ward could have remained active during his litigation with his former promoter.
But hardcore boxing fans know Ward to be a near-flawless technician with extreme physical strength, fantastic defense, unrelenting self-belief and underrated punching power. Ward cleaned out the super middleweight division, and has moved up in weight over the last year or so with the goal of taking over light heavyweight.
The champion, Sergey Kovalev (30-0-1, 26 KO) is a devastating puncher with power in both hands. He has a Duran-like sadistic aura where not only does he hurt opponents, he seems to enjoy it. This guy is as cold and hard as the steal they produce in the mills of his home town in Russia.
But don’t think for a second that Kovalev is a one dimensional brawler just looking to throw one big punch. This guy has real boxing skills. He is fundamentally sound, and controls distance well with his jab.
So, who wins? I honestly would not be shocked by either combatant winning this fight, but readers don’t want to hear that s**t so I will make a prediction.
Kovalev’s power gives him the ability to end a fight at any time. Combine that with his underrated skills, and you realize Ward is fighting an opponent superior to any he has faced.
Ward has been in with big punchers like Carl Froch and Mikkel Kessler, and still has that “0” in the loss column. Kovalev is a different breed of puncher, but my feeling is that Ward has the whiskers to withstand the champ’s power which I believe he will taste tonight.
Kovalev is the bigger guy, but not necessarily the physically stronger of the two. Ward can fight on the inside and has shown the ability to tie up opponents and wear them down with his strength.
Ward also has sneaky power, and I have seen Kovalev hurt before. Not badly hurt, but hurt.
I don’t see Ward getting knocked out here, and I am always alert to how a puncher like Kovalev reacts when he is in there with a guy who can not only stand up to his power, but can also frustrate that puncher, and dish out punishment of his own.
Teddy Atlas often talks about “behaving like a fighter” when talking about how they handle themselves in tough situations. I think both men are very tough mentally.
But, I just have a feeling that Ward is just a tad tougher mentally. Combine that with his edge in speed and athleticism, and I have to go with Ward to win a competitive decision.
I believe both guys will have their moments, and this fight may even be close enough to justify a rematch down the road, but in the end the American gets his hand raised. Talk soon.
-Marksman
PS: I have to take accountability for my last fight prediction. Though I had the outcome right, Manny Pacquiao failed once again to close inside the distance against a solid, but not great Jessie Vargas. The Pac-Man can still fight at an elite level, but Father Time is clearly breathing down his neck.