Tonight two of the top 5 pound-for-pound fighters in the world hook up for the unified Light Heavyweight Championship of the World on HBO Pay Per View. This fight is not for the unified title because WBC strap holder and lineal champion Adonis Stevenson is still content to be spoon fed opponents not named Ward or Kovalev by Al Haymon.
The new champ, Andre Ward (31-0, 15 KO) meets former champ Sergey Kovalev (30-1-1, 26 KO). I will not go into detail about their background or the first fight. Please refer to my articles in November for that.
What I will reiterate is that their first fight ended in a controversial unanimous decision for Ward. I along with everyone I was watching with agreed with HBO’s unofficial scorer, Harold Lederman that Kovalev won the fight.
Ward looked as surprised as us when the decision was announced in his favor. But it was a good fight which would have warranted a rematch even if the judges had gotten it right as Ward did an outstanding job of getting back into a fight in which he was getting clearly whipped early on.
The first fight did a terrible PPV number and I expect no better in this fight, which is a shame. Andre Ward should be disgusted with his promotional company, Roc Nation’s (Jay-Z has a piece of the company) ineptitude in promoting him and this rematch.
This fight has all the makings for a successful PPV. You have two top fighters in their prime, a disputed decision, a black American Olympic Gold Medalist vs. a surly white Russian who is far from PC and the don’t like each other.
However, most casual sports fans don’t even know this fight is happening or who the hell these two fantastic fighters are. Mr. Z should stick to making music which he is allegedly good at (though from what I understand his music is about calling his own people n***ers and whores).
Everything he touches in sports from the Nets, to Miguel Cotto, to Andre Ward seems to underachieve on a promotional level. This week’s announcement of the circus coming to Vegas on August 26 has also made this fight completely non-existent in sports news.
Let’s get to the keys to victory for the combatants. I will start with the challenger.
Though Kovalev put Ward down with a right hand in the second round, the most impressive thing about him in the first fight was his jab in the early rounds. It was long, heavy and powerful.
He was literally knocking Ward off balance with it. The problem is, he stopped throwing it as consistently and seemed content to cruise to a victory that never came.
He also showed fatigue later in the fight. He attributes this to overtraining. I wasn’t there in camp, so I will take his word for it.
One thing a fighter has full control over is his conditioning. Kovalev simply needs more stamina to keep that jab pumping for 12 rounds. This will allow him to control the distance and set up his power punches which could introduce the American to the canvas again.
I would also like to see Kovalev put more water in the basement as Teddy Atlas likes to say. Kovalev is the bigger guy and the harder puncher. We saw Ward’s body attack wear Kovalev down later in the fight.
Give Ward a taste of his own medicine. Most guys who go to the body don’t like to be hit to the body.
Now on to the new champ. Also, establish the jab. Ward also has a very effective jab though it’s different from Kovalev’s. It’s not as long or powerful, but it’s quicker and very accurate.
Also like Kovalev, use that jab to establish the distance at which the fight is fought. Ward wants to get inside, make it ugly, roughhouse, score and get out. He showed in the second half of the fight that he has the tools to do just that.
Most important for Ward is to get started early. Had Ward established his distance earlier on, there is no rematch.
So, on to my prediction…first off, let me disclose I am rooting for Kovalev. I was basically neutral in the first fight.
I respect both guys. However, the poor decision and Ward’s diva-like attitude leading up to negotiations put me off. As good a fighter as he is, Ward is just NOT a star, but he sometimes acts like one.
I will be scoring at home and just like I gave Kovalev the really close rounds in the first fight because he was champ, I will now give Ward that same respect. He is the champion now weather I think he should be or not.
As for what I think the outcome will be, I am once again going with Ward in a competitive decision. I expect a similar fight, but I think the fact that Ward survived Kovalev’s power once gives him a psychological edge.
In addition, Kovalev is fighting angry and I think he believes he needs a knockout to win. He is talking about ending Ward’s career. That is a recipe for desperation.
I could see Kovalev getting easily frustrated and sacrificing his underrated technical skills in route to punching himself out. Just ask George Foreman how wanting to end Muhammad Ali’s career in Zaire worked out for him.
I think both will have their moments and a trilogy may be warranted. However, if Ward gets his hand raised again, I think he will want to turn the page from the Kovalev. It would not be the end of the Russian’s career, but getting another shot at Ward will prove elusive.
Either way, I am looking forward to tonight’s continuance of what so far has been a very solid year for boxing fans. Talk soon.
-Marksman