On Saturday night the hall-of-fame bound Manny Pacquiao enters the ring at age 40 for the 72nd time in his career with WBA Welterweight Champion Keith “One Time” Thurman (29-0, 22KO, 1 no contest).
The matchup reminds me of the Iran Barkley-Roberto Duran middleweight classic that I wrote about in The Last Great Night of a Legend. You have the faded legend against a guy in his prime who is a really good fighter but maybe not quite on the level of some past Pacquiao opponents and may be vulnerable if the right Pac Man shows up.
Keys to Victory for Pacquiao
Basically be textbook Manny Pacquiao but with a high work rate. In the last 4 years Pacquiao looked very good against Tim Bradley, Lucas Matthysse and Adrien Broner. He looked much more his age in a victory over Jesse Vargas and losses to Floyd Mayweather (possibly due in part to a shoulder that required surgery) and Jeff Horn (terrible decision). The difference was Pacquiao’s commitment to his attack.
In the fights he looked good, he was always busy with both his hands and his legs. In the ones he looked nearly shot he was predictable and hesitant in his attacks; too many faints and not enough combinations.
And he must finish his combos with the right, hopefully the right hook which can catch Thurman moving away from his left. After that get out of the pocket before attacking again.
Keys to Victory for Thurman
For the younger champ, one of the keys to victory is to be active with the jab. Thurman should use his length to make it difficult for Pacquiao to come with his in-and-out flurries.
He needs to be able to punch on the move a bit, which he has shown he is capable of doing. Thurman should keep pumping that jab while moving to his left whenever possible.
This will keep his front foot outside the southpaw’s front foot and away from Manny’s left. The Filipino has pop in both hands but Thurman should force him to win with the right, not the left.
Most important for Thurman: time Pacquiao jumping in with the southpaw Kryptonite. That’s the straight right hand; the same weapon Juan Manuel Marquez gave Manny fits with over 4 fights and once gave him a nice 5 minute siesta. Mayweather was also very effective with the straight right.
Prediction
So who wins? Pacquiao started as a live betting underdog. He was so live that the money has shifted Pacquiao into the favorite making Thurman the live dog.
So, if you are betting go with the underdog at the time you place it as either guy can win this fight.
I told you how this fight had similarities to Barkley-Duran. But the combatants also have some stark differences.
Pacquiao is like Roberto Duran in 1989 in his age and championship experience. But while he may have more explosiveness than Duran, he is not nearly as fundamentally sound.
Pac Man jumps in on his attacks. There are times he is punching with one or no feet on the floor for a split second.
You would never in a million years teach a guy to fight like Manny Pacquiao. However, he is a special athlete who’s explosiveness usually masks and compensates for his fundamental transgressions.
Thurman on the other hand, while being a champion in his prime is not Iran Barkley. Thurman is a smart engaging guy who was just on the cusp of stardom coming off victories over Shawn Porter and Danny Garcia on network television before an injury, and maybe some complacency in the broadcast seat kept him inactive for 2 years.
Barkley was born to fight, and fight he did. The Blade did nothing but fight!
Thurman’s layoff made him barely get through a game Josesito Lopez in his last fight. Was that ring rust or has some of the fire gone out?
I will be rooting for Pacquiao to tame the younger lion. When the fight was signed I thought he would.
Thurman looked bad against Lopez and Pac Man looked very good against Adrien Broner in his last contest. But Broner is notorious for fighting below his hype in big fights while Lopez has always risen above his talent level.
I am assuming a better Thurman will show up in Vegas. My gut feeling has changed.
Yes, Pacquiao is still extremely explosive for 40 but he is still about 3 ticks slower than he once was.
Those ticks allow Thurman just enough time to nail the legend coming in with that all-important straight right.
And One Time, that right will end Pacquiao’s night. Talk soon.
-Marksman